INDIA EXPECTS TO HAVE A DEFICIENT RAINFALL
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Private weather monitor Skymet, forecasted India is going to have deficient rainfall in the following monsoon season.
- There would be a deficit rainfall during the monsoon period because of the warming of Central Pacific Ocean. This affects the monsoon rainfall.
- The eastern India & Central India is going to be at higher risk of rain deficient.
- It expects the rain to be at below average and the rain deficient will be at 7% of the normal monsoon during the period June – September.
- The rain in the month of June, a month for agriculture, will face 9% short of normal rainfall of the country.
- It’s going to be a slow start of rain, during the month of June and later on in the month of August, the country will have better rainfall than in July & September.
- Skymet proposes a chance of 15% drought, 30% chance of normal rainfall, 55% chance of below normal.
- The monsoon rainfall depends on the ElNino, which should be formed in the month of March-May and the temperature should be maintained between 0.5-1 degree celcius for 3 straight months.
- Skymet, watched this from February, and concluded ElNino fading rapidly. Because of this drop in the temperature, only a moderate ElNino will be formed any time.
- Previously, Indian meteorological Department also announced “weak ElNino conditions would be prevailed”.
- Monsoon is a familiar though a little known climatic phenomenon.
- The Monsoon is a recurring evente. it repeats after a certain frequency of time – a year in our case. But, it may not be uniform in every period (year). There are a lot of factors which affect its duration and intensity over India.
- The Monsoon is basically a result of the flow of moisture laden winds because of the variation of temperature across the Indian Ocean.
- El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of what is known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) cycle.
- The ENSO cycle is a scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific.
- El Nino as the warm phaseof ENSO, whereas La Nina is the cold phaseof ENSO.
- Background of El Nino: El Nino means“The Little Boy or Christ Child” in Spanish. El Nino was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s, with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. The name was chosen based on the time of year (around December) during which these warm waters events tended to occur.
- El Nino is a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean with a global impact on weather patterns.
- The cycle begins when the warm water in the western tropical Pacific Ocean shifts eastward along the equator toward the coast of South America.
- Normally, this warm water pools near Indonesia and the Philippines. During an El Nino, the Pacific’s warmest surface waters sit offshore of north western South America.